Connecticut passed their new state House of Representatives district plan on November 18, 2021 and passed their new state Senate district plan on November 23, 2021. Each passed unanimously in their 9-person bipartisan Reapportionment Commission; however, the process has been criticized for legislators controlling the process and for the negotiations that serve to protect incumbents.
The League of Women Voters of Connecticut asked Kyle Evans (Trinity College, Department of Mathematics) and Catherine T. Chang (University of Washington, College of Education) to provide descriptive and statistical analyses of the new State House and State Senate maps, with a particular focus on incumbent protection. Thus, the purpose of this analysis is to investigate the extent of incumbent protection in the new Assembly maps while also providing summary data on the new districts. The impact of new districts on incumbents will be analyzed through the location of district borders, with an ensemble analysis to determine if the protection of incumbents constitutes a statistical outlier, and by investigating changes to competitive districts.
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